Although Iraq, Afghanistan, and Iran remain challenging, these are largely unresolved issues from the Bush Administration.
Obama’s own greatest foreign policy challenges are Pakistan and Israel. The leadership of both countries are pursuing policies contrary to the interests of the U.S.
In Pakistan, the government in Islamabad seems incapable of stopping a Taliban insurgency that has occupied large portions of the country and has, in fact, ceded control of the legal system in some areas. And the newly formed civilian government seems as reluctant as the former military dictatorship to crack down on Taliban and Al Qaeda incursions into Afghanistan, despite massive U.S. military aid.
In fact, elements of the Pakistani military may view the Taliban insurgents as their ticket to return to power. The large middle class and the wealthy landowners would likely prefer another military junta to Taliban rule. Thus, the military may have no interest in stamping out the insurgency, as they can use the threat of Taliban rule as a club to persuade the country that only military rule stands between them and Sharia law.
Furthermore, it has been widely reported that the Intelligence Services in Pakistan are broadly sympathetic to radical Islam because they can count on the radical Islamists to stir the pot in Kashmir.
A nuclear armed Pakistan with large territories under Taliban control is surely not in our interests. But neither the current government nor the military, despite the alliance with the U.S., seem willing or able to do much about it.
In Israel, a rightwing government that is opposed to a two-state solution in Palestine has taken power and appears ready to resist any attempt by the Obama Administration to work toward a comprehensive solution to the Arab/Israeli conflict.
Opposition to a two-state solution is opposition to any solution at all since a single state, governing both Israelis and Palestinians, is inconceivable.
Yet, the Palestinian/Israeli conflict and the perceived indifference of the United States toward the plight of the Palestinians is the main source of conflict with the Islamic world.
Another ally pursuing their own aims in conflict with American interests.
The fact that other countries have no regard for our interests is not surprising—they have to attend to their own interests. But why then are we giving massive amounts of military aid to both Israel and Pakistan.
Shouldn’t the United States threaten to withhold such aid if they don’t pay more attention to U.S. interests? The loss of U.S. military aid would not only seriously threaten the resources available for both countries to continue their operations, it would also threaten the financial benefits that inevitably accrue to the individuals who are well positioned to siphon off some of the aid for themselves. They have powerful incentives to keep the aid flowing; thus they have powerful incentives to make sure U.S. aims are served.
With a credible threat to withhold military aid, we might see more rapid progress in both the Middle East and Pakistan.
