Posts Tagged ‘The Great Recession’

Befuddlement Over Reactions to TARP

Wednesday, October 6th, 2010

It is a matter of enduring befuddlement why TARP, the legislation that rescued the banks and other financial institutions, remains unpopular.

Although it is appropriate to question the fairness of a program that rescued wealthy bankers and not homeowners, nevertheless the TARP programs were largely successful in accomplishing their task without very little costs to taxpayers.

Even as voters rage and candidates put up ads against government bailouts, the reviled mother of them all — the $700 billion lifeline to banks, insurance and auto companies — will expire after Sunday at a fraction of that cost, and could conceivably earn taxpayers a profit.

A final accounting of the government’s full range of interventions in the economy, including the bailouts of the mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is years off and will most likely remain controversial and potentially costly.

But the once-unthinkable possibility that the $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program could end up costing far less, or even nothing, became more likely on Thursday with the news that the government had negotiated a plan with the American International Group to begin repaying taxpayers.

Two years ago, many assumed that the hundreds of millions of dollars authorized to be spent to rescue Wall St. would disappear. But now it appears likely that the whole program will cost nothing and the public may actually make money on it.

Of course, we almost certainly won’t hear anyone from the administration boasting about these encouraging results, because public revulsion for TARP is unrivaled in our discourse. Indeed, the word “bailout” has managed to become synonymous with “evil,” so much so that nearly every policy debate involves participants trying to figure out a way to characterize the other side’s position as a “bailout” to someone.

Brian A. Bethune, the chief financial economist in the United States for IHS/Global Insight, called the program over all “a tremendous success.” Another industry insider said that TARP “is the best federal program of any real size to be despised by the public like this.”

It is estimated that letting the banks fail would have increased unemployment to at least 16% if not more.

As Matt Yglesias wrote:

Do you think letting the banks fail would have had zero disruptive impact on the economy? None whatsoever? What other programs can you name that garnered support from Nancy Pelosi and George W Bush, helped people millions of people, and had a negative cost to the government? And yet people think it’s horrible, in part because the public sphere has utterly failed to defend it.

That’s a problem, in part because the early days of TARP were a huge success for the public sphere…. It became a lost opportunity for ideological instruction. Instead it’s become a moment of anti-instruction, which people think has demonstrated the lesson that the government consists of nothing but corrupt giveaways. It makes me sad. When it was first proposed, I didn’t understand this issue correctly. But in the ensuing two years, I’ve learned more about it and improved my understanding. The public as a whole, however, as just gotten itself more confused.

It doesn’t take much to get the public confused these days.

Impeccable Logic

Thursday, September 2nd, 2010

One of the main talking points of Republicans in this election year is that the stimulus didn’t work to generate jobs so we have to go back to conservative, supply-side  economics—cutting taxes for the wealthy and eliminating regulations on business.

In fact, Carly Fiorina made this argument in her debate with Senator Boxer on Wednesday.

But this argument makes no sense. Here is Steve Benen’s explanation of why its nonsense—his logic is impeccable.

“…in early 2009 there were basically four main approaches.

(1) Pass a massive, ambitious economic stimulus.

(2) Pass a trimmed down economic stimulus that could overcome a Republican filibuster.

(3) Do nothing.

(4) Pass a five-year spending freeze proposed by confused congressional Republicans at the time.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can safely say that (1) was the best option, but we ended up with (2). The policy was effective and worked as it was intended, but it was too small to generate a robust, sustained recovery.

But let’s be clear about this — the shortcomings of (2) doesn’t discredit (1). That’s actually backwards. For that matter, those who thought (4) was just a terrific idea — i.e., almost every single Republican serving in the United States Congress — aren’t in a position to complain about (2), since (2) was an infinitely superior approach to (3) and (4).

Some folks, at this point, get to say, “I told you so.” Every Republican critic of the stimulus isn’t in this group.

You see. This is not really that hard to figure out.

A Good Idea, But…

Monday, August 30th, 2010

Democrats and Republicans have competing views on how to end this recession. Democrats want more stimulus and government spending to increase demand for goods and services; Republicans want to cut taxes to encourage more spending on consumer goods.

But there is reason to think neither strategy will work.

Over the past 30 years, consumers have been spending more by going into debt assuming that increased value of assets such as homes will keep them solvent. But that created artificially high prices, especially in real estate and real estate-backed securities, that collapsed when the financial crisis hit. Thus, there has been a massive loss of wealth since the beginning of the recession which makes it harder for people and businesses to borrow money and makes it harder to service the debt they have already incurred. Until the level of debt held by individuals is brought into line with current income levels, spending will be sluggish no matter what the government does. According to  some economists, it may take 10 years to work of the excess debt in the economy.

So what to do about the recession? William Galston has the right idea:

A different era … How long will it take our policy makers and political parties to absorb the implications of that stark, undeniable phrase? When they do, they will realize that we have only two strategic options: Either we accept years of sluggish growth and high unemployment, or we shift to a new model that mobilizes the record level of private capital now sitting on the sidelines for public investments that will boost economic activity and employment in the short term, and economic productivity and growth in the long term, while generating rates of return sufficient to interest investors.

This is why we need a national infrastructure bank as the linchpin of a public investment strategy driven by economic analysis rather than congressional politics. Rather than bridges to nowhere, we need a bridge to the future. It’s time for hide-bound appropriators to get out of the way.

Our nation’s infrastructure is old and deteriorating. Now is the time to mobilize capital to rebuild it and put people back to work as well.

But what Galston fails to mention is that conservatives are likely to see a government supported infrastructure bank as more “socialism” since the idea is coming from Democrats.

Why would they be more welcoming toward this idea that any of the others Democrats have floated?

The problem is not a lack of ideas; the problem is Republican intransigence fed by public ignorance.